2025 Autumn Budget predictions for the self-employed, by a tax expert

As Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver this year’s Autumn Budget, those who are self-employed or freelancers need to be prepared for some of the potential changes that could come from it.

This article is now out of date. You can see the main points from the 26/11/25 Autumn Budget here.

These changes could potentially impact how they manage their income, savings and tax liabilities.

Many will be watching closely to see whether the Chancellor offers any real support for the UK’s self-employed sector.

Lee Murphy, Managing Director at The Accountancy Partnership, an online accountancy firm specialising in helping the self-employed and freelancers with their accounting and taxes, outlines five key areas to watch – exclusively for ByteStart.

ByteStart editor, James Leckie, has also added some of our thoughts at the end of this article.

Murphy says:

“Last year’s Budget hit business owners hard, with an increase in the living wage and employers’ National Insurance contributions. We’ve seen many industries face extreme complications and, sadly, even closures, since the Budget last year, but it’s good to know what potentially might come up next month for the self-employed to be prepared for.”

Stealth tax rises through frozen thresholds

“The Government’s decision to freeze National Insurance thresholds is already set to continue until April 2028, effectively acting as a stealth tax. As inflation is pushing incomes higher than ever, more self-employed workers are going to find themselves in higher tax brackets, despite no actual increase in their take-home pay due to the cost of living.

The ‘fiscal drag’ will mean there will be less take-home pay, and the self-employed should work with their accountants to plan for this accordingly, especially for potential growing tax liabilities.”

Reduced CGT and dividend tax relief

“There’s a growing pressure right now on public finances, which could potentially mean that there will be further cuts to Capital Gains Tax and dividend tax allowances. This is going to affect limited company owners who pay themselves through dividends, or who plan to sell business assets.

Lowering the allowance will make it harder to extract business profits efficiently, forcing business owners to reassess strategies such as who else is involved in the business, and time their asset disposals a bit more carefully.”

Pension and ISA adjustments

“While there have been discussions around tweaking pension tax relief and reducing ISA limits, there may also be changes to the annual contribution cap or higher-rate relief for the self-employed.

Any kind of shift here is likely going to affect long-term planning, particularly making it important for sole traders, company owners and freelancers to review how they should be saving for their retirement, and whether they are making the most of their tax-efficient investment opportunities.”

Read our guide to paying into a pension or ISA if you’re self-employed.

Reforms to making tax digital (MTD)

“MTD has already faced numerous delays, but the Government is hugely under pressure to boost compliance and modernise how self-employed and freelancers do their tax returns and reporting.

If there are new deadlines or Reeves brings in stricter reporting requirements, then those who are self-employed or running a business of any sort need to ensure that they’re up to date and their record-keeping is crystal clear.

Accountants should be on hand to help clients understand, upgrade and remain compliant to avoid any hefty fines; there aren’t any excuses with HMRC.”

Support for small business investment

“Fiscal tightening is hugely likely in November, and while the Chancellor may introduce incentives to boost small business growth, they may only be around specific businesses such as sustainability or technology.

These could offset some potential financial pressures created somewhere else in the Budget, giving self-employed and business owners new opportunities to reinvest in their business and drive long-term sustainability despite a very challenging economic backdrop.”

Some more predictions

Here are some more Autumn Budget predictions from a variety of sources, and thoughts from ByteStart editor, James Leckie.

As the Autumn Budget draws near, predictions are all following similar themes. AccountingWEB’s Budget preview also flags potential freezes to income tax bands, VAT threshold tweaks, and property-related measures.

Legal tax commentators at Osborne Clarke also point to likely revenue-raising moves on non-headline levers, plus possible changes which will affect capital and property.

For an enlightening view on how the state of the public finances could shape policy choices, the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ options for tax increases sets out realistic routes the Chancellor might use.

The main problem, it seems, is that Labour has ruled out hiking income tax, VAT and employees’ NI, which leaves the government with very little wiggle room.

An increase in VAT by a few percentage points would provide tens of billions of extra revenue. However, it seems far more likely that we’ll see changes to multiple smaller taxes, as well as an extension of the current income tax bands and thresholds.

Potential changes to the VAT registration threshold and a hike in dividend taxes look to be the most worrying for small business owners.

A ByteStart, we’ll publish a plain-English breakdown for sole traders and limited company directors as soon as the announcements are made on 26th November.